Here is a commentary by
Steve Saville, an Australian who lives in
China and writes a newsletter called The
Speculative Investor. (Google it if you are
interested in subscribing.) His views are
usually "big picture" oriented and are not
often seen
in the western media, though his investment
letter is circulated world wide. His comments are, of
course,
aimed at informing his subscribers concerning
matters that may add to their insight
concerning investment decisions.
We have known Steve and
subscribed to his newsletter for many years.
He always has some very well-informed and
common sense views of political activities
and what motivates politicians. His main
purpose is
to inform his readers for investment purposes
but his comments range over a wide group of
subjects. This one deals with "Climate
Change" (global warming).
With his permission, we share
this with you because it is so "right on the
money" in our opinion. It is from his
December 6 newsletter. - Chuck
------------------------
POLITICS AND CLIMATE
CHANGE NONSENSE
By Steve Saville
Paul Krugman, a journalist,
TV personality and prize-winning economist,
is obviously a smart guy, and yet much of his
commentary on the economy and the financial
markets can best be described as moronic. In
our opinion, this apparent contradiction
arises because Krugman's economics - at
least, the economics he espouses in the
popular press - are dominated by his
political leanings. Krugman is a strong
believer in big government, so his views on
economics are crafted to support an expanded
role for government.
Unfortunately, Krugman
appears to be a proxy for the economics
profession. There are some good economists
who are able and willing to objectively
analyse (and publicise) the long-term effects
of government policy on all segments of the
economy, but they are the exception rather
than the rule. Most are shortsighted
advocates for an interventionist government,
despite the mountain of evidence that
attempts -- even the well-intentioned ones --
to interfere with the free market invariably
do more harm than good. One of the main
reasons for this sorry state of affairs is,
we suspect, that money and prestige are
directed towards economists who 'toe the
correct political line'.
It is disappointing, if not
surprising, that climate science appears to
have gone the same way as the science of
economics, meaning that politics has come to
dominate the study of climate the way it
dominates the study of economics. For
example, government funding is directed
almost exclusively to those climate
scientists who attempt to prove that
Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) is a major
problem to be reckoned with, while efforts
are made to ensure that the research produced
by AGW sceptics never sees the light of day.
Consequently, the average climate scientist
is in danger of becoming as
counter-productive as the average economist.
AGW and "Climate Change" are
even more topical than usual right now. This
is due to the international Climate Change
conference that will be held in Copenhagen
over the next two weeks, and to what has
become known as "Climategate". "Climategate"
refers to the recent theft of email records
and other information from the Climate
Research Unit (CRU) of a university that
provides climate data and analysis to the
UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC). The stolen records show that
climate data have been altered, falsified and
concealed in an effort to make the 'facts'
fit the computer models constructed by AGW
proponents.
The stolen information
doesn't conclusively prove that the AGW
Theory is wrong. Instead, it is just another
brick in a large and growing wall of evidence
that separates climate-change reality from
the climate-change situation as presented to
the public.
One of the most brazen
attempts to make the evidence fit the AGW
Theory was the construction of the long-term
temperature graph known as "Mann's Hockey
Stick". This graph shows a relatively stable
global temperature for hundreds of years and
then an upward trend beginning in the
early-1800s. Because the beginning of the
graph's upward trend coincides with the
beginning of the Industrial Revolution, it is
a very neat fit with the AGW Theory.
The creation of "Mann's
Hockey Stick" effectively involved the
re-writing of centuries of recorded history.
The analysis upon which it is based has since
been thoroughly discredited, and yet
governments around the world are still acting
as if it is fact rather than fiction. There
is clearly a determination not to let an
inconvenient truth get in the way of a good
story, or, more relevantly, to let the truth
get in the way of an 'excuse' for more
government control over the economy.
One of the biggest obstacles
faced by the AGW proponents -- and the
motivation behind the creation of "Mann's
Hockey Stick" -- is the historical evidence
that the world was significantly warmer
during Medieval times (1000-1400) than it is
today. Another obstacle is the mounting
evidence that the Earth has entered a COOLING
cycle (global temperature has been in a
slight downward trend since 2002). The recent
cooling and the preceding heating are what
would be expected if changes in the Sun's
activity, as opposed to changes in
human-generated CO2, were the dominant
influence on multi-decade swings in the
average global temperature. Along these
lines, would it really be surprising if it
turned out that man's influence on the
Earth's climate were negligible compared to
the influence of the Sun?
The AGW Theory faces many
other logical and evidential obstacles. For
example, humankind almost certainly has an
effect on the amount of CO2 in the Earth's
atmosphere, but CO2 is NOT a pollutant and
CO2 comprises less than 0.04% (four
one-hundredths of one percent) of the
atmosphere. Moreover, there is no evidence
that changes in CO2 levels CAUSE changes in
global temperature. Actually, the evidence
suggests that if there is a causal
relationship between CO2 and temperature then
temperature is the cause and CO2 is the
effect (ice core data suggest that
temperature changes lead CO2 changes by a few
hundred years).
We don't think anyone can be
100% sure that the AGW Theory is wrong.
However, many aspects of the theory simply
don't add up, and it is clear that the
climate models currently being used by the
IPCC are fatally flawed. Governments should
therefore not be proceeding with costly
programs aimed at controlling the Earth's
climate by controlling CO2 emissions (putting
aside, for now, the likelihood that the
measures currently under consideration will
not even lead to an overall reduction in
greenhouse gas emissions).
We have the faint hope that
the evidence of a new global cooling cycle
will become so blatant over the next few
years that politics and government-funded
climate science will be forced into line with
logic and reality, but we are not optimistic.
The reason we aren't optimistic is that
"climate change" -- something that has been
going on since the dawn of time -- is being
used to justify an expanded role for
government. If the change is from warmer to
cooler, rather than from cooler to warmer, it
could still be promoted as man-made and could
therefore serve the same purpose. This means
that from an investment perspective we
should, until/unless proven otherwise,
operate under the assumption that resources
will be forcibly directed towards businesses
that are perceived to be "green".
Comments