The Kruger-Dunning Effect
Written for RiteOn By Guest Editor EKG
Educated (Harvard Law, Columbia), handsome and charismatic, Barack Obama, had little, if any, executive experience when the Democrats nominated him for the Presidency (8/27/2008, unemployment rate 6.2%, Bureau of Labor Statistics). Before seeking the Democratic nomination, Mr. Obama had been in the United States Senate for two years. Prior to that he had spent seven years in the Illinois State Senate. (In contrast) The majority media immediately pounced on Alaska Governor and former mayor Sarah Palin's lack of experience to hold the office of Vice President.
When Mr. Obama took office on January 21, 2009, the United States was officially in a recession. The unemployment rate the month after his first full month in office was 8.6% .
In an effort to revive the economy, President Obama and the Democrat controlled House and Senate passed an $819 billion stimulus bill which promised "shovel ready jobs". Not a single House Republican and only three Republican Senators voted for the bill. One Senator (Spector) switched parties, was defeated in the primary and no longer holds office.
Two years later, with the unemployment rate at 9.1%, the president joked that the shovel ready jobs were not as "shovel ready" as he thought.
Today, the Republicans control the House, the Senate Democrats up for reelection are squirrely and the President wants another stimulus. This one, however, is not being called by that name. It is, in his words, "A Jobs Bill". The words "shovel" and "ready" have not been used. "Pass This Bill!" is the new club with which he and his media sycophants beat House Republicans over the head with in an effort to ensure President Obama is reelected. (The Democrats remain in control of the Senate, but that is rarely mentioned by President Obama or the majority media).
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results. A less intellectual argument is when in a hole, stop digging. But is that really what's going on with President Obama? Isn't it more likely, he is suffering from the Kruger-Dunning Effect?
Over a decade ago, J. Kruger and D. Dunning published a paper titled: "Unskilled and unaware of it: how difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self assessments" (J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 1999, Dec; 77(6):1121-34). The abstract can be viewed by Googling the title of the paper.
Kruger and Dunning reported that some hold overly favorable views about their abilities in many social and intellectual domains. "Not only do these people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it." Suffering from illusory superiority, they rate their ability much higher than it actually is, and thus are incapable of recognizing their mistakes. Paradoxically, improving their skills and increasing their metacognitive competence, helped them recognize the limitations of their abilities.
The Kruger-Dunning Effect was especially noticeable when America's high school students scored highest in self-esteem among the industrialized nations but near the bottom in ability. Apparently, after two and a half years in office, President Obama still scores high in self esteem, but has not yet improved his executive skills nor his metacognitive ability enough to recognize his limitations. He continues to think he's the smartest guy in the room in spite of all evidence to the contrary. Then again, he may be an example of The Peter Principle (the theory that employees tend to be promoted until they reach their highest level of incompetence).
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